A wet and cold May for Michigan and Wisconsin, compounded with the wildfire smoke from Canada, has made for abnormal growing conditions this year for growers.
“What is the normal weather here anymore? I don't think anybody knows,” says Rich Dubke, vice president of traditional lending for GreenStone Farm Credit Services. “This definitely hasn’t been an average year so far.”
With corn, early development is more critical than with soybeans, which push for growth and yield development later into the summer.
“A lot of the top end is lost early (in corn) and then it's just, ‘how much can you hold on to throughout the summer?’” explains Dubke, who reports from southeast Michigan. “I do feel like we have lost some top end at this point. Obviously, a good rainstorm at the right time throughout the summer, and some good pollination weather, can save us and push us through.”
With current prices favoring corn over soybeans, Wisconsin farmers intended to plant 3.95 million acres of corn for all purposes in 2025 according to the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service – Prospective Plantings report. That is up 200,000 corn acres from 2024, while producers intended to plant 1.90 million acres of soybeans in Wisconsin.
Michigan had a projected planting of 2.3 million corn acres and 2.15 million soybean acres for 2025, which is similar to 2024. The state has maintained approximately the same number of corn acres for nearly a decade.
“From what I've heard and from what I've seen, our crop is average to slightly above average for what’s in the ground right now,” says Dubke. “No one’s in love with it, but I don’t think anyone really hates it.”
Planting challenges early in the season
Planting started earlier than usual due to dry conditions, with 73% of the corn acreage planted by mid-May in Wisconsin, according to the Badger Crop Network. The initial dry spell was followed by timely rains, which helped with emergence and overall crop health.
While the season started with challenges, the recent rains and heat are setting the stage for a potentially strong growing season, and early planted fields may have a yield advantage, says the Badger Crop Network.
“In southeast Michigan, our crop went in the ground in various stages,” Dubke reports. “We had a good push in late April, followed by multiple short windows across the month of May and early June, with some areas experiencing some replant and weather-related issues in getting the crop started.”
Corn is quickly making up for its slow start in Michigan, with most around V6/7, although some fields are past V10, according to Michigan State University (MSU). Sidedress nitrogen applications continued. Tar spot has been confirmed in many counties throughout the Midwest, but the best timing for a single fungicide application is still between VT and R3-4, MSU advises.
The 2025 U.S. corn planted area is projected to increase by 4.7 million acres (+5.2%) from 2024 and is 1.1 million acres above the market’s expectation. USDA projects the 2025 U.S. soybean area will decrease by 3.55 million acres (-4.1%) to 83.5 million acres, which is near the market’s expectation.
Michigan has 96% of its corn emerged, while Wisconsin trails a bit at 88%, according to USDA’s June 23 report. Ninety percent of Michigan’s soybeans are emerging, while Wisconsin is at 89%. Soybeans are mostly V2-V4, however some early-planted fields have plants entering reproductive stages – both states are reporting less than 5% flowering.
Michigan’s corn crop is 57% good to excellent, and soybeans are 45%, while Wisconsin is at 76% in that category and soybeans are coming in at 63%.
Temperatures are expected to remain high throughout July, keeping crop water demand high.
In June 2025, Michigan’s corn crop is experiencing a mixed bag of conditions. While some areas are showing positive growth and recovery from a slow start, others are facing challenges from cool, wet weather and the potential threat of diseases like tar spot, which is being monitored, especially in northern Indiana and creeping towards Michigan's southern border.
“I think we're looking at it earlier and more often,” says Dubke about tar spot. “But with tight margins, the applications of fungicides must be more calculated. Growers can't afford to just blindly treat for it. Many growers are a lot more involved in crop scouting and working with agronomists this year to make sure they know what’s going on in their fields to make timely applications.”
Uncertain market conditions continue
The USDA projects the 2025 season-average farm price for corn at $3.90 per bushel. “There’s a lot of uncertainty in the market,” Dubke says. “I've had a lot of growers, who have been doing this a long time, tell me they have the least amount contracted in a long time. Historically, June provides us some good contracting opportunities, and we have not seen that yet.”
The outlook on corn pricing is bleak, he says. “There's just too much corn out there for what we’re using and what we’re exporting. Farmers may need to get comfortable with where the market’s at today.”
While the soybean crop, looks about average, some of the early planted beans didn’t tolerate May’s cold weather, Dubke notes from southeast Michigan where some beans were replanted. “The bean crop isn't made early, it’s made late with rains in late July and into August,” he says. “There's a lot of time to make up ground on the bean crop.”
With some weeds sneaking through the first herbicide application, some growers are eyeing a second application. “They will also be making decisions about double-crop soybeans as the wheat crop looks to be coming off in a timely fashion. Producers are looking to get all the money they can out of what they can do in an operating cycle, and that might be double crop beans this year.”
The USDA projects the 2025/26 U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans to be $10.25 per bushel, according to the USDA. This is an increase from the $9.95 per bushel forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year.
However, the U.S.’s traditional global trading partner, China, doesn't seem to have the appetite for American soybeans that they once did.
While the current outlook is not ideal for growers, “Farmers are a savvy bunch and historically have shown the persistence and adeptness required to absorb blips like this,” Dubke says.
