The 2025 Michigan apple outlook projects a strong, above-average crop of approximately 30 million bushels (1.26 billion pounds), marking the fourth consecutive year of higher-than-average crop yields. However, 2025 is not expected to rise to the levels seen in 2024 and 2023.
"The crop is expected to be down from the past couple of years," says Joel Arends, GreenStone financial services officer. "However, most growers are satisfied with the fruit counts."
USApple announced its harvest forecast in August. However, estimates vary across organizations.
• USApple projects 30 million bushels
• The Michigan Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Association forecasts a lower yield of 25.5 million bushels—15% lower than USApple's forecast and 6% below USDA's final 2024 production.
The USDA's national apple production estimate for the 2025/26 crop year is 11.5 billion pounds (273 million bushels), representing a 6% increase from 2024.
Harvest estimates are developed when "growers and other industry experts report on what they are seeing in various regions of the state, then come to a consensus on the crop size estimate,” according to Diane Smith, executive director of the Michigan Apple Committee.
Unlike Michigan, Wisconsin apple production is not singled out in USDA reports.
Favorable Growing Conditions Set the Stage for a Good Crop
The higher yields in recent years are being driven by:
• Favorable spring and summer weather conditions
• Adoption of high-density orchards, allowing for additional bushels on fewer acres
The 2025 growing season has been particularly favorable with no significant frost or freeze events in the spring and a gradual warm-up, setting the stage for a good crop in Michigan. This contrasts sharply with 2012, when 90% of Michigan's apple crop was lost due to 80-degree days in March followed by freezing temperatures in April.
"Scab, a common fungal disease of apples, has been limited despite moderate rain events in the first half of the season," Arends said. "Major hail damage in an isolated area along 'The Ridge' in the Ottawa/Kent County corridor will have minor overall impact on Michigan's fresh fruit supply. West Michigan is experiencing near-record drought conditions, which is impacting fruit size."
Industry Innovations Enhance Fruit Quality
"Michigan Apple growers work with tree fruit researchers to implement the latest growing techniques and use new technology to monitor growing conditions,” said Smith, highlighting the industry’s commitment to innovation.
“This includes weather, soil health, and plant nutrition, among other factors. Michigan growers are committed to bringing the best quality fruit to the consumer,” she said.
Market Conditions
Marketing large crops has necessitated changes in how growers market both fresh and processing varieties.
"Growers are carrying less inventory into the summer of 2025 than they had in 2023 and 2024," says Arends. "This is helping with the cash flow tightness growers were seeing in those years."
Fresh and processing prices appear to be recovering going into the 2025 harvest compared to the lows seen in 2023 and 2024. With current tariffs affecting Pacific Northwest exports of processing apples, "there could be added supply pressure backing into the Michigan processor market," Arends says. "Expect to see any price impacts in the second half of the harvest season."
Retailers continue pushing for year-round availability, according to Arends. "Michigan marketers will continue to adapt to this need and will be storing more apples into the summer months," he says. "Production management will continue to put more emphasis on fruit that can maintain quality longer."
Apple Industry Outlook
The nature of apple production requires multi-year planning for production and variety selection. "Abrupt changes to industry marketing habits and excessive labor costs will be the major driving factors affecting producer profitability," Arends notes.
Michigan harvested an estimated 30.5 million bushels of apples in 2024. The state has more than 17.6 million apple trees in commercial production, covering 38,000 acres on 850 family-run farms, making apples the largest and most valuable fruit crop in the state.
Many growers continue to expand into markets like hard cider or find themselves managing new varieties to support growth and balancing emerging varieties with consumer demand and retail space.
While Red Delicious remains the second most-produced apple, its production has declined steeply over the last five years. Conversely, Honeycrisp production has increased by 46% or almost 9 million bushels during the same period, according to USApple.
"New or replacement of older orchards continues at a cautious rate," Arends says. "Producers are reducing heritage varieties with the majority of new plantings being Honeycrisp, Gala, Fuji, and Evercrisp varieties."
Michigan and Wisconsin’s Market Position
Only Washington and New York produce more apples than Michigan, which exports to Central and South America, the Caribbean, and Asia. However, the majority of Michigan's apple crop is sold domestically in 32 states.
Michigan apples are available year-round and can be found at approximately 200 farm markets and cider mills in Michigan, as well as more than 12,000 retail groceries across the U.S.
By comparison, the Wisconsin Apple Growers Association represents 170 commercial apple growers from across the state. Commercial orchards are found in 46 of Wisconsin's 72 counties, comprising about 7,400 acres and producing approximately 56 million pounds of fruit worth over $9 million per year.
