As avian influenza spread across the United States last year, the price of eggs skyrocketed in the store.
The price of a dozen eggs was up 150% in January from a year prior, to $4.80 a dozen, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, in 2023, wholesale egg prices will fall 26.8%, USDA Chief Economist, Seth Meyer, said in a presentation at the annual USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum in Virginia in February.
Much of the market spike can be attributed to avian influenza. While the incidence of bird flu, affecting domestic poultry, waterfowl, raptors, and some shorebirds, has quieted down some, the disease is still out there.
Because the current strain (H5N1) causes heavy losses to poultry, especially layers and turkeys but also broiler breeders, it is referred to as highly pathogenic avian influenza, or HPAI. Avian flu, which is generally carried by wild birds, is highly contagious. It’s also extremely lethal; it kills 90% to 100% of chickens, often within 48 hours, according to the CDC. Once it is detected, the whole flock must be depopulated, according to a federal mandate.
Curt Flammini, vice president of capital markets lending for GreenStone Farm Credit Services says, “There appears to be some cause for optimism for two reasons. First, research around a vaccine continues to gain traction, especially among those in the commercial layer space. Second, in recent weeks I attended two poultry conferences where the near absence of HPAI in the 2023 spring migration was a topic of much discussion. The consensus on the street was the virus may have mutated and/or the waterfowl population has developed a kind of ‘herd immunity’ and so in either case, the virus’s transmissibility has been greatly reduced.”
Virus update
The virus has been circulating among birds and poultry in different parts of the world for many years and continues to evolve into different groups that are referred to as clades. The current clade of H5N1 virus appears well-adapted to spread efficiently among wild birds and poultry in many regions of the world. This virus has been detected in wild birds in all 50 states and caused outbreaks in 47 states affecting more than 58 million commercial poultry and backyard flocks, according to USDA.
Most recently, both on April 19, a North Dakota commercial turkey operation of 58,500 birds tested positive for the disease, as well as a 75,800-head turkey operation in South Dakota.
Wisconsin is reporting 3,305,310 avian bird flu losses starting in March of 2022 with a commercial egg layer operation of 2,750,700 birds. In November of last year, 187,900 birds were infected and depopulated from a commercial upland gamebird producer. There have been no reported cases since.
In Michigan there have been 23 incidents or flocks reported positive, resulting in the depopulation of 38,330 birds – many of them in backyard flocks. However, Michigan’s largest, single loss was a 35,100-head commercial turkey operation.
Market predictions
Consumer demand for shell eggs improved slightly but remains well below the levels of recent years in May the traditional “egg month,” reports USDA. Meanwhile, the 2022 HPAI outbreak has shut off a number of export destination countries. USDA’s Weekly Shell Egg Inventory report shows inventories of shell eggs, especially large ones, on the rise, which in turn, is pushing wholesale markets dramatically lower.
Shoppers have been grudgingly buying shell eggs on an “as needed” basis but retail prices have left little incentive to purchase beyond basic need. With May being the historic month when the egg industry has struggled with outbreaks of avian influenza, marketers are looking forward to warmer, drier weather to help prevent possible outbreaks. The fact that egg inventory levels are rising and wholesale prices are dropping may result in increased retail featuring.
USDA increased export forecasts for both broilers and turkeys in 2023, while import forecasts were decreased sharply due to the discovery of HPAI in commercial flocks in Chile. Broiler prices were adjusted up on recent trends, while 2023 table-egg production forecast is revised downward, USDA reports.
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